India’s Political Calendar Set for a High-Stakes Year

The year 2026 is expected to be politically intense, following a turbulent 2025 that saw surprise elections, heated debates over voter verification, allegations of electoral fraud, and sweeping political reforms. With several key state elections in India scheduled, the coming months are likely to shape national politics and set the tone for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

In addition to full-scale polls, by-elections are also expected in Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura, and Uttar Pradesh, though these are unlikely to alter existing power balances.

Maharashtra Begins the Electoral Journey

Mumbai Civic Polls Take Center Stage

The election cycle will begin with municipal elections in Maharashtra on January 15, including the long-pending Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls—India’s richest civic election.

The contest will pit the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance against the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), a coalition of the Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena (UBT). While the MVA remains formally intact, ideological differences and family-driven politics have weakened its unity.

Family Politics Dominate Maharashtra

Two major political reunions are drawing attention:

• Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, estranged cousins, are expected to reunite after two decades, aiming to reclaim Bal Thackeray’s legacy.

• Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar have also mended ties after a bitter split, reshaping the NCP’s future.

These developments have further sidelined the Congress, which has ruled out any alliance with Raj Thackeray’s MNS, especially after controversies in 2025.

A strong BJP performance in recent panchayat elections suggests the party may be consolidating its base enough to dominate even without key allies.

Eastern India Under the Spotlight

West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee’s Biggest Test Yet

After Maharashtra, focus will shift to West Bengal, where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee faces another decisive battle. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) has repeatedly blocked the BJP’s expansion in the state, making Bengal a prestige fight for both sides.

Mamata Banerjee has positioned herself as a defender of federalism and civil rights, strongly opposing the Centre on issues such as Waqf law changes and voter re-verification. The BJP, meanwhile, continues to attack her government over corruption, border security, nepotism, and women’s safety.

Political analysts believe this election could strengthen Banerjee’s image as a national opposition leader, potentially positioning her for a larger role ahead of 2029.

Assam: BJP’s Northeast Stronghold Faces Challenges

In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma remains one of the BJP’s most influential regional leaders. However, issues like ethnic identity, Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) implementation, and tribal realignments could complicate the race.

The opposition’s ability to unite and address local economic concerns may determine whether the BJP retains its grip in the state.

Southern States Present Complex Battles

Tamil Nadu: A New Political Force Emerges

The BJP has historically struggled in Tamil Nadu, a state dominated by Dravidian politics led by the DMK and AIADMK. For the BJP, even a modest improvement would carry symbolic importance.

However, the real storyline is the entry of actor Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. Seen as a dark horse, Vijay has labeled the DMK as his political rival and the BJP as his ideological opponent, while keeping channels open with the AIADMK’s voter base.

For the AIADMK, already weakened by repeated losses, another defeat could deepen internal fractures.

Kerala: History at Stake

In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is aiming for a third consecutive term, something unprecedented in the state.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is sensing an opportunity amid allegations of corruption and controversies in the state’s film industry. The Congress is expected to rely heavily on Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who now represents Wayanad, to revive its prospects.

The BJP, though still a minor player, has made gains with its first Lok Sabha MP in 2024 and recent success in Thiruvananthapuram’s civic polls.

Looking Ahead to 2029

Why the 2026 Elections Matter

Individually, these elections reflect diverse regional dynamics. Collectively, they represent a crucial step toward the 2029 general elections.

For the BJP, success would reinforce its dominance and allow long-term planning beyond Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For the Congress and the INDIA bloc, the challenge is to demonstrate unity, present a shared national vision, and convert state-level momentum into a credible national alternative.

As India’s electoral battlegrounds prepare for 2026, the outcomes will not just decide state governments—they will shape the future direction of Indian politics.