A major update to U.S. labor market data could reveal that the economy added far fewer jobs than previously reported, raising new concerns about the strength of the American job market.

BLS Set to Release Major Downward Revision

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will issue its preliminary benchmark revision today at 10 a.m. ET. Economists expect the update to show that the U.S. added about 800,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending March 2025.

This means average job growth in 2024 may have been closer to 100,000 per month, not the previously estimated 165,000 per month, according to Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.

Trump Administration and Job Data Dispute

The revision comes just weeks after President Trump criticized the accuracy of the monthly jobs report and dismissed the BLS commissioner. The administration has argued that government data is overstating employment gains at a time when businesses face higher tariff costs and are adopting artificial intelligence to cut labor expenses.

Signs of a Weakening Job Market

Recent numbers show U.S. employers added only 29,000 jobs per month from June through August 2025, highlighting a sharp slowdown. Economists warn that the labor market is losing momentum after years of steady hiring.

“The labor market will likely look even worse after today’s revision,” said Adams.

Why Does the BLS Revise Jobs Data?

The BLS updates its data monthly as more responses come in from employers. But once a year, it issues a benchmark revision based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which covers over 95% of U.S. jobs.

Unlike the monthly survey of 50,000 businesses, the QCEW includes 11 million workplaces, giving a much clearer picture of job creation and losses.

What Happened in the Last Revision?

In 2024, the BLS lowered job growth estimates by 818,000 positions for the 12 months ending March 2024. That revision revealed cracks in the labor market and influenced the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates.

Impact on Federal Reserve’s Next Move

With unemployment rising and job creation slowing, analysts believe the Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate cut at its September 17 meeting.

• Economists see a 100% chance of a rate cut this month.

• Some expect a 0.25% cut, while others predict a larger 0.5% “jumbo cut”.

• The Fed will also review the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due September 11, which is expected to show 2.9% annual inflation.

If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could push the Fed to take a more cautious approach.

Political Tensions Around the BLS

President Trump recently nominated E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation fellow, to lead the BLS. Antoni has criticized the agency’s methods, raising concerns among economists.

In response, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) defended the BLS, stressing the importance of keeping U.S. statistics independent and reliable.

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics needs a qualified commissioner who protects its credibility and independence,” NABE said.

Key Takeaways

• BLS revision may cut 800,000 jobs from earlier data.

• Job growth slowing to about 100,000 per month in 2024.

• Trump administration disputes labor data accuracy amid political tension.

• Federal Reserve expected to cut rates in September 2025.

• Economists stress the need to protect BLS independence for accurate U.S. statistics.